BEST LEAD ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Who will win: Cotillard's nomination was somewhat of a surprise, but personally I think it's for the wrong movie. Jones was a rock in Theory. Pike is incredibly underrated in my view, and her star is continuing to rise year after year. Witherspoon has become the Indie Darling, delivering great work time after time in those smaller films that aren't playing in 3,000 theaters. Moore has been nominated four times previously (including twice in 2003) but never taken home gold. That changes on Sunday. Still Alice isn't a movie that necessarily stays with you long after you've seen it, but her performance is.
My vote: I really loved Witherspoon's performance in Wild, as well as Moore's in Alice. Since I'm flipping a virtual coin with my vote, I'm going to give the nod to Moore since Witherspoon already has an Oscar.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES: American Sniper (Jason Hall), The Imitation Game (Graham Moore), Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson), The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten), Whiplash (Damien Chazelle)
Who will win: This is a tough call. The Writers' Guild went with Imitation here so that's one good possibility. I think Theory and Whiplash also have a shot. Sniper has had some controversy with the story itself (not the screenplay), and Vice is too unknown. Whiplash is basically an abusive story that may turn off a few voters. So that leaves two, both about historical figures. One has lived a full life, the other saw his end too soon because of social norms of the era. I think the AMPAS gives Graham Moore the gold.
My vote: I think Theory didn't quite do a smooth job of seamlessly moving the story forward over the years of time, so I'll give Graham Moore the nod here over Whiplash, which takes a very close second.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES: Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar, X-Men: Days of Future Past
Who will win: Interstellar made $186 million (approximately) at the U.S. box office, and that number is the lowest of all of these nominees. This is the Category of the Blockbuster. This also is probably the first time we've seen any Oscar category with not one, not two, but THREE movies based on comic books. Marvel deserves an award just for that feat. Unfortunately, I don't think the Academy is going to give them one. I haven't seen any indication that this award is going anywhere but to Apes.
My vote: The only problem with a lot of those comic book films is that sometimes, all the effects turn into a visual cluster and it's hard to tell what's blowing up where. This is magnified further when the story clusters with it. I thought that X-Men was able to avoid that pitfall, and I was very impressed with the film as a whole. It gets my vote.
BEST FILM EDITING
NOMINEES: American Sniper (Joel Cox and Gary Roach), Boyhood (Sandra Adair), The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling), The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg), Whiplash (Tom Cross)
Who will win: This one's easy. Take 12 years worth of film and turn into a 3-hour film. OK, not literally 12 years, but you get the idea. Sandra Adair did a masterful job of making Boyhood flow and she's taking home an Oscar. No doubt.
My vote: See above.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
NOMINEES: Ida (Poland), Leviathan (Russia), Tangerines (Estonia), Timbuktu (Mauritania), Wild Tales (Argentina)
Who will win: This has been a category in recent years where the Academy has been quite unpredictable. Oftentimes the favorite to win, doesn't win. In one or two cases, the winning film is one of the dark horses. This year, we have two favorites. Ida is a very good film shot entirely in black-and-white (which the AMPAS loves, hence the cinematography nomination this film also received), and it's about a Jewish nun who was raised as a Catholic, as she learns about what happened to her family as a result of Nazi occupation when she was very young. It's a bit short, coming in at under 80 minutes, but the quality is solid if not a tad slow at times. Leviathan is another very good film about Russian political corruption. This one's a bit long at 140 minutes, but holds up well the entire time. There has been some vocal support in recent weeks for Wild Tales and one wonders if the voters caught heed of that. Ultimately, I think the Academy will give the nod to Ida.
My vote: It's a skewed vote, unfortunately, since I've only seen two of the nominees up to now. I really did enjoy Ida when I saw it last autumn and I was sure it would be my favorite, but then last week I saw Leviathan and there went that vote for Ida out the window.
BEST LEAD ACTOR
NOMINEES: Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman), Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Who will win: Christ if I know. This is THE hardest race to call this year, as I believe four out of the five nominees have a legitimate chance to win. Steve Carell is unfortunately the odd man out, but it's not because his performance was weak. It was excellent. The others were just even better, and picking one of them is going to be very tough. Most of the other awarding guilds have the nod to either Keaton or Redmayne, but Cumberbatch snuck in one or two wins himself. Cooper wasn't nominated by any other guild, yet the Academy gave him his third straight year with a nomination, and this performance of his was an emotional wallop. Keaton, age 63, has never been nominated before. This was seen by many as a comeback role, and paralleling his career with Birdman's plot, a perhaps-semi-autobiographical one. The Academy LOVES that shit. Redmayne, age 33, has also never been nominated before, but he's found himself in many films over the last 5 years that the Academy has honored, and he's earned major credibility with the voters. His role in Theory is portraying Stephen Hawking, and nailing it. Biographical role, tragic protagonist, love story, setting over a long period of time. The Academy LOVES that shit too. I want to cop out and predict a tie, but that's ridiculous. It could happen, of course, but the odds are so extreme. Keaton was fearless but Redmayne maybe...MAYBE...edged him out on emotion, so I predict the Academy gives the nod to Redmayne.
My vote: My heart wants Keaton, but I can't deny Redmayne's performance. It had much more depth than I expected it would. He deserves the Oscar.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
NOMINEES: "Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie), "Glory" (Selma), "Grateful" (Beyond the Lights), "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me), "Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
Who will win: No consolation prize for LEGO, which was surprisingly left out of the Best Animated Feature race. This will come down to "Glory" and "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", the latter potentially garnering a heap of sentimental votes for Glen Campbell, who is sadly wilting away due to the effects of Alzheimer's Disease. I think ultimately "Glory" will get the nod.
My vote: I listened to all five songs, and the two I liked best were those same two. Maybe it's the love I have for country music, but I prefer Glen Campbell's tune, so it gets my vote.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
NOMINEES: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Who will win: With no LEGO in the mix, this became a tough prediction. Big Hero 6 has never had any legitimate Oscar buzz. The Boxtrolls looks fun, and the Academy's really liked the works of Laika Entertainment, feting it with several nominations in recent years, but I don't think it's winning. Song of the Sea repeats Cartoon Saloon and director Tomm Moore's success, having been nominated for 2009's The Secret of Kells. Kaguya is the latest from GKids and Studio Ghibli, who are finding themselves more and more in the annual Oscar race. Dragon 2 probably will win. It's the title most voters are familiar with and were dragged to see with their kids. The story's safe and good enough. The only thing that may hamper its odds is that this is a sequel, but within this list, it's got the best probability to win.
My vote: I expected to be saying my vote would be for Kaguya, but I watched it this morning and I have to say, I was pretty underwhelmed by it, which shocked me. Hero didn't work for me either. Dragon 2 certainly looks impressive, but I've heard the story is a little weak. So since I haven't yet viewed that one or the other two movies I haven't mentioned yet in this paragraph, I'm kinda stuck for a vote. But I have to vote. So I'll go with the odds and just mark off Dragon 2, if only because the first one really was very good. I hate saying this, but I haven't yet seen an animated film from 2014 that bowled me over.
We're 2/3 done! Tomorrow, the last 8 categories, including Best Picture. And for the record, I still haven't decided where my Best Picture vote is going yet.
No comments:
Post a Comment