There are 24 competitive Oscars to be handed out on Sunday. Today and for the next two days, I'll present 8 of those categories, listing the nominees along with who I think will win. Separately within each category, I'll state who I would vote for personally as well.
Let's roll.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken
Who will win: These are interesting nominees. Unbroken is probably least likely to reign here. The still-pretty-unknown Mr. Turner will have better odds in other categories it scored nominations for. The AMPAS loves their black-and-white, which is why Polish film Ida popped up here. It's going to be close, but I think Birdman will get the win over The Grand Budapest Hotel simply because of all the seemingly-effortless appearing-to-all-be-one-long-take gimmickry the film possesses. That's ironic because to many people, that is what makes the film awesome. To just as many others, it's what makes the film abhorrent. The American Society of Cinematographers crowned Birdman as their favorite of 2014, so it also has that going for it.
My vote: As much as I love the overall look of Grand, I think all the sweeping and swooping nonstop scenery of Birdman deserves the win indeed.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES: Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Guardians of the Galaxy
Who will win: Boy, this is such a step up from the nominees in this category last year. Realistically, any of these could win, and even should win. However, there's so many characters in Guardians wearing such colorful masterpieces of makeup artistry that even the sometimes-stuffy AMPAS would be hard-pressed to ignore it, so they'll swallow their pride and give the "comic-book flick" an Oscar. Rejoice!
My vote: Guardians, easily.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
NOMINEES: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat), The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat), Interstellar (Alex...I mean, Hans Zimmer), Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon), The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
Who will win: Alexandre Desplat has been nominated 6 times previously and has never won, so he's figured out the secret on how to end that losing streak. Get nominated twice! In truth, this may work against him because the votes might get split and Jóhannsson could sweep in and win the award just as he already did for the Golden Globes last month. But I think this time, the Academy's going to give Desplat his due, and I think it will be for The Imitation Game.
My vote: I also vote for Desplat...but I personally like the Grand score a little better. It's a bit quirky and meshes perfectly with the on-screen zaniness of the film.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
NOMINEES: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, Joanna, Our Curse, The Reaper, White Earth
Who will win: As is usually the case, most of the subject matter here is a bit of a downer. As is also usually the case, I had a hell of a time trying to track these down to view them, and only have been able to see one of them. Crisis is an HBO documentary that centers on a Veterans Crisis Hotline call center. We don't hear the veterans' end of the conversations, but we see and hear the crisis counselors doing their best to help them. It's a 40-minute documentary with 34 minutes of it being a one-sided conversation and the other 6 minutes being the counselors actually talking to the camera. That didn't really sell to me as a deserving Oscar winner. White Earth already actually has won an Oscar. Well...sorta. Its director, Christian Jensen, won a Student Academy Award for the work. The fact that the overall Academy later deemed it worthy to be nominated tells me this could take the win.
My vote: Based simply on the 2 minutes I've seen of trailers for each of these (save for Crisis, which I've seen in full), I'd agree with that Academy vote for White Earth. I totally want to see it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman), fucking Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Who will win: With perhaps one lesser-guild exception (like the L.A. Film Critics, perhaps), Patricia Arquette has run the table, picking up prize after prize for her role in Boyhood. I can't argue that, she is deserving. She wins.
My vote: Emma Stone. She has become one of the finest young actresses in the world over the last several years, and to me she opened up new territory with her performance in Birdman. She's not bringing home an Oscar this time, but she's going to sometime.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
NOMINEES: Aya, Boogaloo and Graham, Butter Lamp, Parvenah, The Phone Call
Who will win: For the second straight year, these are overall a strong crop of short films. Also for the second straight year, several of them are from foreign lands, which further cements the fact that U.S. filmmakers need to get on the ball here. Nonetheless, the only one of these I didn't particularly care for was Butter Lamp. It's fiction, because it's a short film, but it tries to seem spontaneous, and the problem is it never really feels like either. It feels weird and phony. So that's out. Boogaloo is quite funny and it could pull an upset here. Parvenah is fine but a little flat. The Phone Call boasts Academy favorites Jim Broadbent and Sally Hawkins, but it's a real downer even with the backhandedly-happy ending. That won't matter to the Academy. They really especially love Hawkins right now, so they'll want to honor something she's in. In fairness, it is good. I think it wins.
My vote: My favorite of the shorts was Aya. It's the longest of the nominees at 39 minutes, but it's so well-shot and well-executed that when it's over, you kinda wish it wasn't.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES: The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, Into the Woods, Mr. Turner
Who will win: Depending on which subsection of the Academy winds up with the majority, this award will go to either Grand or Turner. The former is colorful and beautiful and full of impressive set decoration. The latter is classical and beautiful and full of impressive set decoration. Does the AMPAS go colorful or classical? Based on recent history, I think Grand will get the win here.
My vote: This one's a no-brainer. The Grand Budapest Hotel.
BEST SOUND EDITING
NOMINEES: American Sniper, Birdman, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Interstellar, Unbroken
Who will win: In 2003, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King scored 11 Oscar nominations. It was the film that completed an incredibly-impressive trilogy that saw all 3 of its films be nominated for Best Picture and many other awards. The third chapter made history in winning all 11 of its categories, the biggest Oscars sweep we'll probably ever see. Fast forward to 2014. The third movie in the Hobbit trilogy comes out. The films are all impressive with the same style and many of the same characters as the LOTR films. None of those films scored many nominations, and here in this category is the sole nomination for Five Armies. I guess the Academy has seen it before, so to speak. Adding insult to injury, it isn't winning this award. Interstellar has a chance. Birdman has a better chance. American Sniper has the best chance, and I think this category is the movie's overall best chance of bringing home an Oscar.
My vote: Sniper. The scenes of Chris Kyle (Bradley Cooper) in Iraq are wonderfully shot, and the sound editing is a key reason why. You know the shot's coming, but you still flinch and maybe even duck. Well done, Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman.
That's it for today. Tomorrow we'll look at 8 more categories, including both Lead Acting lists. One of them is a shoo-in. The other one may be the most unpredictable category of the ceremony.
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