Dallas Bloggers Club -- 86th Annual Academy Awards predictions (March 2, 2014)

Well, we have arrived. It has been one of the more unpredictable Awards seasons we've ever seen, with several categories having no clear front-runner, and the awards leading up to now being spread around to several films and several names. This is probably the only time where with less than a week before the Oscars, I still am not 100% sure on what I think will win the top prize. THIS is the excitement the Oscars needs every year!

I'll list with each category the nominees and who or what I think will win the award, but I will also then give you my own personal vote. Meaning, if I was an Academy member, who or what I would check off on my ballot, and why. If you're partaking in an Oscar pool, maybe some of these picks will put you into the winner's circle! (Disclaimer: Author is not responsible for disastrous Oscar pools resulting from predictions made within this blog.)

Let's roll!

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
NOMINEES: Feral, Get a Horse!, Mr. Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom
Who will win: There's no mystery here at all. Disney, in blending modern animation with the classic 1940's style, have put together a fun short that will no doubt impress the Academy enough to vote Walt Disney Studios their second-straight win in this category. There are a lot of supporters for Mr. Hublot but I'd be very surprised to see any other result than Disney taking this one.
My vote: Despite the final minute getting a little too frenetic and cute for its own good, I still think Get a Horse! is deserving of the win.

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
NOMINEES: Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me), Avant Que de Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), Helium, Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), The Voorman Problem
Who will win: Four of the nominated short films are actually foreign-language short films, which is quite unusual, but sadly I think it also shows that American short films have fallen behind in quality a bit. Of these, the Spanish Aquel No Era Yo was 20 minutes that felt like 200, with murder and rape and children as renegade soldiers. Not at all enjoyable. Helium, the tale of a hospital janitor easing a dying child's journey into the afterlife, was a nice story but a bit drawn out even as a short film. Pitääkö... was entertaining but nothing special, as a family tries to get ready to go to a wedding only to see everything that can go wrong, go wrong. It's also the shortest of the nominees at 7 minutes, a bit too short in my view. That leaves two, either of which I think could take the award. Avant Que de Tout Perdre is the story of a woman taking her kids and attempting to escape her abusive husband. There are close calls and harrowing moments as he senses something is up. The Voorman Problem stars Martin Freeman as a prison psychiatrist who discovers one of his patients who claims to be the Creator could indeed not just be another lunatic. Both are very good, and I give the Oscar edge to Voorman simply because of the recognizable actor starring in it.
My vote: I would vote for The Voorman Problem simply because of the two short films I liked the most, I felt its conclusion was a bit more fun.

BEST DOCUMENTARY, SHORT SUBJECT
NOMINEES: Cavedigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Who will win: While the live-action and animated shorts had been made available to the public in theaters and through streaming outlets, the Documentary shorts for whatever reason were less so, and I'm flying blind on this category. However, Academy voters tend to award short films and/or documentaries that are in relation to the Holocaust, and The Lady in Number 6 is the story of Alice Herz-Sommer, the then-longest-surviving Holocaust survivor who, at age 109, still lived a happy life thankx in great part to music. She shares stories of her survival, what got her through and how she chose to live her life afterwards. Sadly, just days ago, Herz-Sommer passed away at the age of 110. The final Oscar voting ended on February 25, so there were a couple of days still open for voting after this happened. I believe this film would have gotten the win anyway, but her passing could potentially have swung a few more votes this way on top of it.
My vote: Limited to just the trailers and a couple of clips from each, I think The Lady in Number 6 looked the most interesting anyway.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
NOMINEES: The Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet From Stardom
Who will win: With no Blackfish and no Stories We Tell to make this a closer race, it comes down to two. The highly-accoladed The Act of Killing has Indonesian leaders who have committed mass murders re-enacting their killings in the styles of movie scenes and even musicals. Seems kinda disgusting a topic, but that's more or less the point, to show how ridiculous these killers are in being proud of their "accomplishments" and even willing to show them off in this fashion. On the other side of the coin is 20 Feet From Stardom, a rich story of the unsung heroes of the music industry, background singers. Many are nameless and faceless to the public, but as countless major names such as Bruce Springsteen and Mick Jagger state throughout the film, without those background singers, where would those major names be? I like the odds of a music-themed documentary winning this award for the second straight year.
My vote: No argument here. 20 Feet From Stardom was fascinating, fun and uplifting.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness
Who will win: I expect there to be a pattern with the technical awards this year. That pattern is, if Gravity is nominated, then Gravity wins. But if there is one sure technical award win for that film, it's right here. The VE team on Gravity took you into space like no other film has ever done, and it was terrifying.
My vote: Commence pattern.

BEST SOUND MIXING
NOMINEES: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor
Who will win: Here, I think that four of these films (sorry, Llewyn) all have at least a chance of winning, but as mentioned above, the technical impressiveness of Gravity is too great for Oscar to ignore. If something has a chance to sneak in and take this one, it could be Lone Survivor.
My vote: Not on my ballot, though. Gravity, Oscar #2.

BEST SOUND EDITING
NOMINEES: All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Who will win: So now taking sound effects and post-production into account, Hobbit has the best odds if it's going to win an Oscar for it to be this one. The 161-minute film is all about one thing and one thing only, Smaug the dragon, and the theater-rattling voice of said dragon (performed by Benedict Cumberbatch) combined with the splashing of gold and the smashing of rock within his cave almost made the questionably-necessary "middle movie" worth it. Lone Survivor can't be counted out here either. In the end, I think the Gravity run will continue. This category had a tie last year. Think it could happen again?
My vote: ...and Sound Editing makes 3 for Gravity.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
NOMINEES: "Happy" from Despicable Me 2, "Let it Go" from Frozen, "The Moon Song" from Her, "Ordinary Love" from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Who will win: Well, it won't be "Alone Yet Not Alone" because that song, after being announced as a nominee, was subsequently disqualified because the co-songwriter, Bruce Broughton, illegally campaigned for it, sending emails to the nominating committee asking for them to consider it for a nomination. What made this especially improper is that Bruce is a former governor and current executive committee member of the music branch of the Academy. He's cried foul but what's done is done, so we have just four nominated songs instead. It would not have made a difference, because Disney's returned to 1990's form. Their biggest box-office success since The Lion King will yield them their 13th Best Original Song Oscar in history.
My vote: Truly, all but "The Moon Song" impress me enough to want to vote for it, but "Let it Go" is the sing-along song of the year, and it does indeed remind me of that Disney Renaissance period of the 1990's when every movie yielded quality scores and songs that won truckloads of awards. It's nice to feel that again.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
NOMINEES: The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks
Who will win: I think I can eliminate Her and Philomena here. Saving Mr. Banks harkens back to the 1960's nicely as it tells the story of how the book Mary Poppins was brought to life on the silver screen. The Book Thief is your obligatory John Williams nomination, but in fairness, it's a score I found myself to appreciate much more than most of his overblown work. However, here I think Gravity gets its first non-technical win. The score fit the action perfectly throughout the movie, building to a crescendo just as your heart began racing with the next hazard facing Sandra Bullock's character and easing as you wiped your brow after another close call. Steven Price already has won a Grammy, and now I think he'll add an Oscar to his mantle as well.
My vote: I hate to sound like a broken record, but Gravity once again, for the reasons I stated above. This makes 4.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
NOMINEES: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her
Who will win: For the award formerly known as "Art/Set Direction", we've got three or four legitimate contenders here in my view. I think Hustle is out. Her is set in the not-too-distant future and has nice sets, especially outdoors. 12 Years is full of beautiful 1800's architecture. Gravity is all about spaceships and space itself, and because I think there's a little less to look at and admire that isn't the abyss, I think this is the one technical category that this film will not win. The Great Gatsby, showcasing 1920's great excesses, has won many awards for its art direction thus far, including the top prize from the Art Directors Guild itself. I expect the Academy to follow suit.
My vote: Eh, maybe I'm a bit jaded by the film itself, but I'm not wowed enough to give Gatsby my own vote. I'm personally more impressed with the production design of 12 Years a Slave.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman
Who will win: The Invisible Woman fits the historical pattern of this award the best, since it's set in the 1800's and is set in England. The Academy LOVES honoring those films here. However, this year I think the 1920's will win out. Catherine Martin won two Oscars years ago for her work as Art Director/Set Director, and Costume Designer for Baz Luhrmann's Moulin Rouge!. She's once again Baz's choice for those same duties on Gatsby, and don't think the Academy doesn't know that. Catherine gets two more bookends this year.
My vote: In this case, I agree with Gatsby being the right choice. The costume work is beautiful, whether it's Leonardo DiCaprio and Jude Law dressed in their best formal attire, or the many flappers in their eye-popping dresses and accessories.

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES: Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
Who will win: I can't even believe these nominees. The grandpa makeup I guess was impressive to the nominating committee, and Johnny Depp's Tontonian-painted face apparently was too. However, the transformations of Matthew McConaughey's and Jared Leto's characters in DBC should prevent us from having to preface either of those other two films with the words, "The Academy Award winning." Hopefully.
My vote: An easy pick. Dallas Buyers Club.

BEST FILM EDITING
NOMINEES: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity
Who will win: There's impressive work in all of these nominees, but the work of Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger in the editing done for Gravity is what certainly stands out from the pack. The film has numerous instances of what seem like long single takes, but in reality, the editing is so smooth that it just looks that way. This should be an easy choice for the Academy.
My vote: Make that #5 for Gravity on my ballot too.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES: The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Who will win: The Prisoners nomination was a surprise here, but in regards to the others, all are viable contenders. To me, this will come down to two. For all the reasons I've stated earlier about how great the in-space effects are for Gravity, this has a great chance of winning, especially for the 3-D element. However, Nebraska, shot entirely in black-and-white, is loaded with beautiful outdoor scenery from Montana to Nebraska, and great lighting and staging all-around. I think the Academy will tip the scales for Gravity because of how amazingly realistic its look is. Spinning around aimlessly with Earth coming and going into view is breathtaking and horrifying at the same time.
My vote: Personally, my vote goes to Nebraska. It's just a gorgeous film to look at.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
NOMINEES: The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Who will win: Well, first off, let's congratulate the Academy for nominating Ernest rather than some second-rate mainstream title, as this is proof as it was a few years ago that the overall quality of animated films in 2013 was not so great, and this little-known title from overseas was able to sneak in and get noticed. One of the producers of the film, Didier Brunner, was also a producer on 2009's The Secret of Kells, which was one of the most out-of-nowhere nominations we'd ever seen, so there's obviously a talent for quality here with Brunner. With that said, it has no shot at winning. Neither does The Croods, which did well at the box office but really was a "C+" film at best in the eyes of many. Frozen is Disney's biggest smash in two decades, going even so far as to have the soundtrack top the Billboard album chart. There's no doubt the Academy will bestow the Oscar onto it.
My vote: However, when you strip away the hype, it's a pretty formulaic Disney film. The film that I'm voting for is Hayao Miyazaki's The Wind Rises, his swan song as he heads into retirement. It's gorgeous, the story is rich and no one puts out movie-for-movie better quality than Studio Ghibli.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
NOMINEES: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Omar (Palestine)
Who will win: Leading into the Oscars, one film and one film only has won all the foreign-language awards, and that's Italy's The Great Beauty. It may be great. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to track it down and see it yet. Be that as it may, it seems all the voting members of all the movie guilds have seen it, and love it, so I expect Oscar to follow suit.
My vote: I'll tell you what, though. Beauty will need to be AMAZING for me to want to switch my vote to it from The Broken Circle Breakdown. A tale of love and life and the loss of both, set to a soundtrack of bluegrass music (sung in English, versus the Flemish language of the dialogue), this film blew my mind by how great it was. It's a sad movie as a whole, but there's enough fun and humor throughout it that you're hardly sitting there depressed for 2 hours. Belgium knows bluegrass! The soundtrack is excellent. The story is excellent. Without question, the deserving winner in my view.

BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Who will win: As wide-open as the Best Picture race is, the Best Director race is anything but. Cuarón has swept every director's award thus far. I walked out of the theater months ago saying that this award was all but in the bag for him. I still say that today. Cuarón takes it for his masterful work, and this makes 7 Oscars I'm thinking the Academy will bestow onto his film.
My vote: Ditto, and that makes a half-dozen Oscars from me.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES: 12 Years a Slave, Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street
Who will win: This one's tough to call, because four of these five films have won at least one noteworthy guild's screenplay award up to this point. Captain Phillips pulled a huge shocker by taking the top adapted screenplay prize from the Writers Guild of America. Philomena won the BAFTA's honor. My feeling is that the Academy will honor John Ridley's 12 Years a Slave. It's a brave story that needed to be told, and he did so with no sugarcoating.
My vote: I had trouble settling on a final winner here on my personal ballot, but ultimately I give my vote to Billy Ray's Captain Phillips. There's a lot going on at times in this movie, often simultaneously, and the overlapping panic and mayhem plays out to perfection on screen.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska
Who will win: To me, the key word is "original". Spike Jonze constructed a brilliant semi-satire on the near-future, where everyone is even more reliant on their mobile devices than they are today. No one looks up. No one talks to anyone on the street. It's all interface. Plus, the idea of a very realistic almost-human result of a computer program is probably (and creepily) not too far off. Her should be the clear winner here. Blue Jasmine is one of Woody Allen's better works in recent years, and even though the Academy has never cared before about his complete distaste for the awards process nor his controversies involving his children, I think this time the voters are going to decide Spike over Woody.
My vote: Even though the movie didn't really slay me too terribly, I'm in agreement about the screenplay. It's brilliantly original and a very probable future for our society, which is kinda sad, really. Oscar for Her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska)
Who will win: Boy, if you know, feel free to tell me, because I think the Academy will go one of two ways, and it's pretty much a coin flip as to which one and why. Hollywood is falling very much in love with Sally Hawkins, but I don't think it's her time yet. Julia Roberts, thankx for coming. June Squibb? I'll talk more about her later. I think the Academy will go with either Lawrence or Nyong'o. Jennifer is the current favorite cool celebrity, and she won Best Lead Actress last year, so that's good momentum for a second win this year. Plus, in case you haven't noticed, I haven't given a single win to American Hustle from the Academy thus far, and perhaps they're going to want to honor that film somewhere during the night. Lupita was riveting as Patsy, a slave under Michael Fassbender's iron fist, and for what this is worth, she had a lot more total on-screen time than Jennifer did in her film. I think the Academy will crown Lupita Nyong'o as the winner in what will probably be a very close vote.
My vote: This is the part where I talk more about June Squibb. She gets my vote and it's not even close. Every single scene where June was involved in Nebraska, she stole it. A sassy octogenarian who says what she feels and feels what she says, you laugh at what she says even though sometimes you hate yourself for it. I can't imagine this film having been done without her. She deserves the award.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Who will win: Oh, I'll go out on a limb here and say Jared Leto. He's won every supporting actor prize he's been up for thus far.
My vote: I'm not downplaying Leto's performance, because it was great, but I've seen the transsexual performance done before and win awards. I want something different this year. Barkhad Abdi is that something different. Born in Somalia and living in Michigan, he was cast as the lead hijacker in Captain Phillips, and he is absolutely mesmerizing. To me, Abdi is the most exciting new discovery in years. Whether or not he ultimately has "acting chops" in the long run, he damn sure had them here and he should be awarded for it. His vote is mine.

BEST LEAD ACTOR
NOMINEES: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Who will win: The smart money is on Matthew McConaughey. His performance as an HIV-positive homophobic playboy who is forced to come to grips with his health in the panic-riddled early days of the AIDS epidemic is truly something to behold. He has won just about every award up to this point. However, as hard as I've tried, I haven't been able to shake this feeling that he isn't going to win the Oscar. I think the Academy is ready to honor Leonardo DiCaprio for his role in The Wolf of Wall Street. It's a tour-de-force performance for sure, and he's won his share of acting prizes up to now as well for this one.
My vote: Neither "A" nor "B". I had a hell of a time choosing my personal favorite of these performances, but ultimately, my vote is going to Bruce Dern. A role he played so effortlessly, alternating between pathos, confusion, self-assuredness and frustration. Not to mention, oftentimes hilarious. Bruce Dern, to me, had the best male lead performance of 2013.

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Who will win: Much like Jared Leto pretty much running the table thus far, Cate Blanchett has done the same. I see no reason to think the Oscars will not follow suit.
My vote: Cate's great, and so is her film, but it wasn't my favorite lead actress performance. Judi Dench is wonderful as Philomena Lee. Amy Adams delivers yet another great performance. As for Meryl Streep...listen, I love her. I do. But this nomination just flat-out pisses me off. Enough already, Academy. We get it, you love her too, but apparently a little TOO much. There's nothing special about her performance in August whatsoever, other than she curses a lot and pops pills. Emma Thompson got hosed, because that spot should be hers. My vote? Sandra Bullock, and easily. Gravity was her movie. She carried it, almost literally by herself, as that's how it was written. It is a performance worthy of being honored, and on my personal ballot, this makes Oscar number 8 for Gravity.

So that just leaves one category.

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

NOMINEES: 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street

Who will win: If for no other reason than I'm just feeling a bit lazy at the moment and I want to get this blog finished, I'm not going to summarize each of the nominees as I usually do. Odds are by now, you've seen most of the films, and you probably know the basic plot of all of them thankx to commercials and trailers and whatnot. It is a very tough call this year, as three of the nominated films have won major top prizes up to this point. Those are 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and Gravity. The first two won the top Golden Globes prizes. Gravity won the Directors Guild top award, and it actually tied with 12 Years for the Best Picture prize from the Producers Guild. Both of those films also won the top BAFTA awards. This is the closest Best Picture race in forever, and it took me several weeks of thinking it through for me to finally decide who I think the Academy will bestow the top honor to.

I predict Best Picture will be 12 Years a Slave. It can be uncomfortable to watch at times, but so was Roots in the 1970's. The fact is, it's a story that should be told, especially since it's based on the actual life of Solomon Northup, who lived the very life depicted in this film. It's engrossing, and it's amazing, and (Spoiler Alert!) it DOES end on a high note. I have no issues at all with this movie being crowned Best Picture. It is deserving of the honor.

My vote: Considering all the wins I've given it up to this point, it probably comes as no surprise to read that I choose Gravity. What Gravity did was something that not a single movie did to me since I saw The Dark Knight for the first time in 2008. When the film ended and the theater lights went up, I just took a deep breath and exhaled a "Whoa." It completely and utterly blew me away. It's one thing to be entertained, it's another thing to be completely riveted and given goosebumps. After I saw the movie, I wouldn't shut up about it for days. THAT is what a movie should do, and Gravity did it. It gets my vote, making a total of 9 wins for the film from me.

Here is my personal Best Picture ballot, most preferred to least preferred:
1) Gravity
2) Nebraska
3) Captain Phillips
4) 12 Years a Slave
5) The Wolf of Wall Street
6) Dallas Buyers Club
7) Philomena
8) American Hustle
9) Her

Yes, I really loved Nebraska and Captain Phillips a lot. I've seen them both twice thus far, and with each of them I loved it even more the second time around. Wolf was much better than I anticipated it would be, a classic Scorsese-style film with none of his trademark violence, but plenty of his trademark profanity to more than make up for it. Dallas and Philomena are both nice films that pleased me greatly to see amongst the nominees.

So what happened with American Hustle to make me place it second-to-last? I'm not sure. It just didn't win me over as much as I expected it would. It's certainly good, but in comparison to the previous David O. Russell vehicle, Silver Linings Playbook, it wasn't nearly on that level to me. I found the story a little scattered at times, and a little rushed at other times. The ending played out so fast I almost missed it. It's an excellent ensemble film but I left the theater that day feeling just a bit let down, and in fact, as you may have seen above, I have it winning a grand total of zero Oscars, which is actually pretty stunning to me. As for Her, it's the one film here that I think really isn't Best Picture material. Not at all a bad film, but it just doesn't measure up to the others in my view. I found the characters a little droll, although Scarlett Johansson as the unseen Samantha really delivered a knockout voice-only performance. I'd have preferred to see Inside Llewyn Davis or Saving Mr. Banks get nominated instead. Actually, I'd really have preferred The Broken Circle Breakdown to get nominated, because if I was to slide it into my Top 9 above, it'd be either #4 or #5.

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So there you have it. My Oscars predictions for this Sunday night as we head towards the 86th Annual Academy Awards, a night that is likely to contain at least a few surprises. Ellen DeGeneres is the host, and I haven't been this excited for an Oscars event in many years. A little unpredictability goes a long way. Let's all go to the movies.