Seth MacFarlane will be this year's host, and I'm hoping for the best. That means hopefully, we will see neither animated hide nor hair of Peter, Brian or Stewey Griffin. Many of the presenters have already been announced to this point, and each winner will get to stand on stage and look upon this...
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| The Dolby Theater view from the stage |
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSNominees: Amy Adams ("The Master"), Sally Field ("Lincoln"), Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables"), Helen Hunt ("The Sessions"), Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook")
Who will win: One of two acting categories that seem like sure bets, although this category has pulled a surprise every now and again. As of now though, it seems like nothing will stop Anne Hathaway from taking home the gold. From her beginnings in "The Princess Diaries", it seemed like this young teen actress was going to be a force. She has not disappointed. How important can 5 minutes of film be? The answer is the 5 minutes that Anne sings "I Dreamed a Dream" in this film, because far from just a few people after seeing that commented that the Academy just may as well hand her the trophy already. Keep the guard up, however, for Sally Field. Take this for what it's worth, but this is her third career nomination, and she's 2-for-2 up to now. Amy Adams is always solid and was so again in "The Master", but she's just overmatched this time around. Helen and Jacki, not to be.
Who should win: Anne is deserving without question.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Alan Arkin ("Argo"), Robert DeNiro ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"), Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln"), Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained")
Who will win: The toughest of the acting races to pinpoint, with all the proof needed evident in the awards given out thus far, as four of the five nominated here have taken home at least one prize for their specific role. Arkin played to his strengths more so here than he did in "Little Miss Sunshine", even though he won his Oscar for the latter. DeNiro gave a performance that actually took me two viewings to fully comprehend the level of just how good it was. To me, though, we've seen Arkin's and Jones's and Waltz's performances already done before, and better, elsewhere by them. This doesn't change the fact that I think Christoph Waltz will be bringing home his second Oscar on Sunday night.
Who should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman took a complex movie and kept it together, and moving, and comprehendable. Meanwhile, he's delivering his usual stellar work in the process and making the most difficult dialogue seem so effortless. There's none like him. To be honest, he and Amy Adams together really jelled, and if there was a way to nominate them as a duo for this award, it should be done. Together, they were the MVPs of that film.
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| Amy Adams and Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master" |
Nominees: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win: It seems harder to figure out each year where the line gets drawn between editing actual footage and editing CGI. Same for a few other awards. To me, only "Argo" and "ZDT" really fit here, and I think the documentary-style war environment will give "Zero Dark Thirty" this win.
Who should win: "ZDT" is one gritty film. I can't fathom another film winning this one.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Anna Karenina, The Hobbit--An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln
Who will win: Formerly the award for Art/Set Direction, this one is a bit of a tough call. I'd have to say with most of "Life of Pi" taking place on a boat in the ocean, I can't see much production design to win out over the others. Which sets looked most impressive? "Hobbit" has been done and seen before, so I'm eliminating that one. "Anna" will get its win elsewhere. "Les Miserables" showed a dark and dreary Paris with striking force, but "Lincoln" has 12 nominations, the most of any film this year, so you would think it has to win somewhere before long, plus its PD Rick Carter had a recent win for "Avatar". Playing the odds, I'll say "Lincoln" wins here...
Who should win: ...even though "Les Miserables" should.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman
Who will win: Last year my streak of correct predictions in this category was snapped after a decade, thankx to "The Artist" actually pulling off one of the bigger upsets of the evening. I feel good about starting up a new streak in 2013. "Anna" has been raking in the accolades for its costume design already so there's no reason to expect that to end before Sunday, especially when half of its competition represents a pair of crappy Snow White duds ('duds' as in the films, not the clothing). Also, how hard is it to dress Abe Lincoln? "Les Miserables" seems the only possible surprise.
Who should win: Sticking with "Anna". With this category, royalty generally trumps poverty.
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| Two Oscar winners played evil queens in lousy Snow White movies in 2012. Discuss. |
Nominees: Hitchcock, The Hobbit--An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables
Who will win: The AMPAS expanded the category to include hairstylists, yet still only three films make the final cut. Hitchcock (and he who protrayed him in the so-so film) are bald. Doesn't that take half the meaning of this award away? Well, Anthony Hopkins DID resemble him nicely. I gotta be honest, none of these nominees thrill me here so I'll give it to Peter King and "The Hobbit" since he already won one of these for doing all this makeup already.
Who should win: *shrug* Pick your favorite, because I don't have one.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Who will win: Interesting list, despite the usual John Williams appearance. The Academy has had a preference for different musical styles over the last decade or so, so I think Mychael Danna will take home the gold for his beautiful "Life of Pi" score. Listen to it and judge for yourself.
Who should win: What's not to love there up above? Hey, I wrote a song lyric...
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: Chasing Ice ("Before My Time"), Les Miserables ("Suddenly"), Life of Pi ("Pi's Lullaby"), Skyfall ("Skyfall"), Ted ("Everybody Needs a Best Friend")
Who will win: Well, first off, may I stand up and applaud the AMPAS for finally...by God, FINALLY...coming to their senses with this category, which over the last number of years has been completely pillaged. I've ranted about the reasons why before so I won't here, the bottom line is they've realized their mistake, and have fixed the nomination process. I'm thrilled to not only see five nominees, but songs that actually belong on the list. History will be made on Sunday as "Skyfall" will become the first Bond theme to win an Oscar. Frankly, the stage seems set for it. There will be a 50th Anniversary Bond tribute at the ceremony, most if not all of the actors who have played James Bond will be on stage, Shirley Bassey will be singing live...do you think we'll see all this only to have the Oscar go to a teddy bear?!
Who should win: Believe the hype. The Bond themes have been hit-and-miss over the years but this one totally looks the part. Or perhaps, sounds the part. And who isn't excited to see Adele perform it live on the Oscar stage Sunday night?
BEST SOUND MIXING
Nominees: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Who will win: The cast of "Les Miserables" did all their singing live. Case closed.
Who should win: The cast of "Les Miserables" did all their singing live. Case closed.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Nominees: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win: Paul N.J. Ottossan was the sound mixer and sound editor for Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker", and he won Oscars for both. "Zero Dark Thirty", an even more intense war film, completely envelopes you with the sound as you see what's taking place on-screen. It is even more gripping, though, for the scenes where you just hear the action and see total darkness. It's disturbing, thrilling, terrorizing and spectacular all at once. "ZDT" wins.
Who should win: Nothing else comes close.
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| "Life of Pi"'s visuals are breathtaking even without 3-D |
Nominees: The Avengers, The Hobbit--An Unexpected Journey, Life of Pi, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman
Who will win: Wow, more Snow White. Oh, hi, biggest moneymaking film of 2012, glad to see you got at least one nomination. This was just not the year of the big-budget blockbuster as far as Oscar nominations go. "Prometheus"? Well, the good news is you have a better chance of winning this than "Snow White" does. The bad news is, so would anything else. "The Avengers" could pull it off but I have a feeling "Life of Pi" will take this one. I could care less about 3-D but these effects were so impressive that they would work just as beautifully in 2-D as far as I'm concerned.
Who should win: The story moved slow now and then, but the visuals kept me into "Pi" during those slow periods.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Nominees: Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption
Who will win: Each year it gets easier to see a lot of the short films nominated for Oscars, but for whatever reason I could not find an outlet to see any of these this year before writing this. Combining history, subject matter and critical acclaim, I'm going to say that "Open Heart", which tells the tale of Rwandan children heading to Sudan for risky surgery, wins here.
Who should win: She's doing her best to grow up. She loves art, even painting her own face daily. She's also an immigrant, undocumented, and homeless. Yet she perseveres. "Inocente" sounds like a film a lot more people should be talking about.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man
What will win: Documentaries aren't often commercially-successful to the point where it spurs DVD sales and even CD sales, but "Searching for Sugar Man", the story of reclusive musician Rodriguez, has done just that. It's the one more people are talking about by far, so it's likely going to be the one the voters mark off.
What should win: The problem is, I didn't find the documentary nearly as engaging as the trailer made it seem like it would be. The first hour is that great mystery being unraveled, but once it's unraveled, you kind of feel like you've arrived at your destination and it's time to get off the boat. "5 Broken Cameras" is a show of pure fortitude and guts as the Palestinian filmmaker repeatedly (and peacefully) resists the Israeli army and finds his cameras damaged by weaponry. "The Gatekeepers" has interviews with the only 6 men in the history of the world who led a secretive Israeli agency to prevent terrorism, men who until now very few people even knew existed, much less held that position of power. "The Invisible War" uncovered and educated us on the epidemic of rape in the U.S. military, and the typically-outlandish ignorance by many who oversee said military. Any of these to me could be, and should be, the Oscar winner.
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| Kori Cioca, one of the centerpieces of "The Invisible War" |
Nominees: Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, Henry
Who will win: I had planned on seeing all of these in the theater last week but unfortunately, my schedule kept me from doing so. (Next year, we do Soupapalooza in January!) So like I did with the Documentary Short category, I'm going on critical acclaim and buzz. With that logic, it would seem "Henry" is the probable winner here.
Who should win: Personally, based on trailers and summaries I've read, "Death of a Shadow" sounds extremely enticing. A long-deceased war veteran getting a second chance at life chasing down shadows? Yes, I want to see that.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Nominees: Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head Over Heels, Paperman, The Simpsons--The Longest Daycare
Who will win: Having seen all five of these, the subject matter and how they're delivered really do run the gamut this year. "Adam and Dog" didn't really work for me, and while the Simpsons short was cute, there was nothing memorable there. I thought "Fresh Guacamole" was brilliant, but at under two minutes long I'm not sure I can legitimately call it an Oscar-deserving film even as a short. "Head Over Heels" was a very sweet story with a clever payoff, but against the Pixar juggernaut that is "Paperman", I don't think it can take home the gold. "Paperman" was easily the most widely-seen of the nominees, showing in theaters prior to the film "Wreck-It Ralph", and it breaks new ground interweaving CGI with hand-drawn animation seamlessly. How can it NOT win?
Who should win: That's not to say "Paperman" doesn't deserve to win. It's very good.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees: Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch
Who will win: "Amour" is also up for Best Picture. Any questions?
Who should win: "The Intouchables", but unfortunately it didn't quite make the cut. I have to say, "Amour" was not as great as I hoped it would be given all the buildup. It was certainly slow at times. Too many extended takes of too little going on. Of the five films actually nominated, the trailer for "No" excited both my wife and I a lot, and I've heard a lot of good things about that one. I have a feeling I'm going to like that one more than "Amour" too.
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| "Wreck-It Ralph" with some of his video game friends |
Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph
Who will win: I have to be honest, I have no idea who will win. I think I can eliminate "ParaNorman", which looks cute and was well-received, but it just seems the weakest of these five nominees. No one saw the "Pirates" nomination coming despite the history of the AMPAS loving anything Peter Lord and Aardman Animations release, but that love gives it a shot at stealing this one. "Brave" was Pixar returning to old form, and it's won several trophies already. "Frankenweenie" disappointed at the box office but critics have loved it. "Wreck-It Ralph" was an all-around success and threw lots of old video game nostalgia our way. Can you believe this category might be the tightest race this year? I'm legitimately just typing sentences right now because I still haven't settled on who will win. But I have to finish this damn blog at some point, plus I don't want to burn dinner. So I'm going with...hmmmmmm...OK, I'll say...ummmmmmm...oh, all right. "Brave".
Who should win: And I liked "Brave" too, don't get me wrong. But "Wreck-It Ralph" was BRILLIANT. I'm not just saying that because it finally got Q*Bert in a movie either. It was smart, it was funny, it was sweet without being sappy. It made sense. It was damn fun. It should win this award.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
Who will win: I don't understand the "Django" nomination here, to be honest, but maybe that's just me. Steven Spielberg's cinematographer of choice, Janusz Kaminski, is usually a good bet but in recent years he's had to just settle for nominations. You've heard me say the word "beautiful" a few times already about "Life of Pi". The 3-D imagery was gorgeous indeed. It wins here.
Who should win: The problem I have there is, I don't like 3-D being the tipping point for awards, but as I've already said, this film would look beautiful even in 2-D, so it probably should win anyway.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
Who will win: "Beasts" is a tale that some found confusing, and "Pi" had its slow points. I feel odd continually passing on "Lincoln" with all those nominations but that film just seems like it's 'there' versus the others most of the time. "Argo" won the Writers' Guild top prize, but many have said that "Silver Linings Playbook"'s screenplay actually improved upon the original book, so it's a toss-up. I think the coin will land "Argo"-side-up.
Who should win: I kind of hope it will land "SLP"-side-up, though.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win: It's not unheard of for a foreign film to win a screenplay Oscar, but it's only happened twice in the last 50 years ("A Man and a Woman" in 1966, "Talk to Her" in 2002). To me, "Flight" and "ZDT" don't quite match up to the other two left. I think the Academy may shy away from "Django" though, and "Moonrise" may be too quirky even for their sometimes-quirky tastes. I have a feeling Mark Boal, who won here with "The Hurt Locker", will win again Sunday for "Zero Dark Thirty".
Who should win: It's a shame, because "Moonrise Kingdom" not only should win this award, but it should have a couple of other nominations to boot. A wonderful film.
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| Bill Murray, Frances McDormand, Edward Norton and Bruce Willis in "Moonrise Kingdom" |
Nominees: Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln"), Hugh Jackman ("Les Miserables"), Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master"), Denzel Washington ("Flight")
Who will win: How sure of a bet is Daniel Day-Lewis becoming the first man in history to win Best Lead Actor for a third time? The Anne Hathaway sure bet pales in comparison to this sure bet. That's how sure.
Who should win: I can't even try to make an argument, whether or not I feel someone else should win. I will say Cooper and Phoenix did some awesome work that in a non-Day-Lewis year would likely be awarded.
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Nominees: Jessica Chastain ("Zero Dark Thirty"), Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"), Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild"), Naomi Watts ("The Impossible")
Who will win: I loved the pure unpredictability this category had last year, where any one of four of the nominees had a legitimate chance of winning. This year, I'm not sure that's the case, but I have seen very good arguments from a number of critics and bloggers and analysts for each nominee and why that person should win. Watts conveys incredible emotion as she faces death and tries desperately to find her family after the Japanese tsunami. Wallis, who was age 6 when her film was made, delivers a performance that simply boggles the mind. How can any 6-year-old seem so natural? Riva is fearless as she dives into her role of a dying stroke victim. I would genuinely applaud any of them to win here. But I think in the eyes of the Academy, it's a two-horse race with Chastain and Lawrence. Two very different performances from two women who have quickly gained a lot of clout and respect amongst their peers. With four acting nominations given to cast members of "Silver Linings Playbook", that tells me the overall acting in the film really impressed the Academy, and I think they're going to want to give at least ONE of them an Oscar. Jennifer Lawrence, come up onto the stage.
Who should win: With such great performances all-around, it's hard for me to pick a best single one here. My wife, however, firmly believes that in a just world, this Oscar would go to Emmanuelle Riva. I am hard-pressed not to agree. And that's not just to keep marital peace, it's because Riva at age 85 performed like half of Hollywood at half Riva's age could only dream of.
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| Emmanuelle Riva (age 85) and Quvenzhane Wallis (age 9) both have already made history as the oldest and youngest nominees for Best Actress in history |
Nominees: Michael Haneke ("Amour"), Ang Lee ("Life of Pi"), David O. Russell ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln"), Benh Zeitlin ("Beasts of the Southern Wild")
Who will win: Yeah, needless to say, this category is EXTREMELY interesting this year. Not so much for who is nominated, but for who isn't. Spielberg was the only surefire expected name that made the cut. Two other surefire expected names, Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck, did not. With Russell and Lee, I think most expected one of them to get nominated, but not both. And I don't care what anyone says, no one expected to see either Haneke or Zeitlin here, much less BOTH of them. There's some belief that the lack of a nod for Affleck is because the AMPAS still sees him as an actor, but I don't buy that for a moment. Mel Gibson got nominated, and won. Kevin Costner got nominated, and won. So no, that excuse doesn't hold water. I think the Academy just plain screwed up, whether it was with the new voting rules that allowed for online balloting, or whatever. Hey, a little controversy at the Oscars? Why not? This is the stuff that magazines will write about years from now. Sacheen Littlefeather, the streaker, Best Director nominations for 2012. Most expect Spielberg to win this. I'm calling it right now. David O. Russell shocks the world.
Who should win: Ang Lee made what was supposedly an unfilmable movie. Benh Zeitlin took an amateur cast into the stratosphere. These are both worthy of taking home the prize.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
Who will win: In what was a great year for film, 2012 delivered a lot of unexpected success stories. "Argo" quietly started in theaters and built a slow, early buzz for potential awards. It never let up. "Beasts of the Southern Wild" in limited release captivated audiences and critics everywhere. "Silver Linings Playbook" was barely talked about at the very start of the Oscar season, but then the Toronto Film Festival changed all that. Where years ago the worry of expanding the Best Picture list would cause lesser-deserving films to be nominated, this year we actually wondered which films would be left out because even 10 potential slots couldn't hold all the good ones. When the Oscar nominations were announced, this category was a toss-up. However, every major awards show has gone the way of "Argo" up to now, which was certainly not what many of the prognosticators were calling for two months ago. It doesn't seem like anything will stop "Argo" from taking home the top prize this Sunday night.
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| John Goodman, Alan Arkin and Ben Affleck may be toasting Sunday night to Oscar |
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It has been a wild ride, and it ends Sunday night. Enjoy the Oscars. I know I will.
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