There are quite a few categories that are tough to call this year, more than usual. My personal ballot has an "X" for each pick but a lot of "?"'s next to nominees as well because a win by any of those isn't out of the question. Whatever the case, I think we're in for a fun show that will surprise us more than once.
To make this easiest, I'm just going to list each category and give my picks with any comments as necessary. If you'd like a little information about what each category is actually being awarded for, you can find a blog from earlier this week within the front page index. As a result, I'm going to skip those definitions and explanations here today. We'll begin with the writing categories.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"The Artist" is here but I don't think voters will consider a screenplay for a silent movie an actual screenplay in terms of what the award is supposed to be all about. "Bridesmaids" was the biggest comedy of 2011 and delivered some damn powerful Girl Power to the big screen. "Margin Call" came out of left field to snag a nomination but no one's heard of it, so it has no chance here. "A Separation" is an equally-surprising nominee and I'm thrilled to see it here, as the story that unfolded onscreen was stellar. However, if there's one sure win for Woody Allen's very well-lauded "Midnight in Paris", it's this one.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"Hugo" has 11 nominations in total, the most of any film, and that includes one here. "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" was a great spy movie that has gotten very positive word-of-mouth and brought in excellent box office despite limited release. "The Ides of March", to me, is one of the most underrated films of 2011, and got just this one nomination. Right now, the favorite to win is "The Descendents", as recent momentum has seen this screenplay win many awards. However, I'm predicting the Oscar win for "Moneyball". Aaron Sorkin won this award last year for "The Social Network" and I think he's going to make it two in a row.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"Dimanche/Sunday" is about a bored child who places a coin on the railroad tracks and sees some strange events unfold after a train runs over it. "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" is a magical tale of Morris, who becomes part of a house of books that come to life and interact with the community. "La Luna" is about a boy who is out on a boat at night with his father and grandfather, and the boy discovering the unusual work his relatives do. "A Morning Stroll" shows a passer-by and a chicken engaging in city life. (It's as weird as it sounds.) "Wild Life" tells the tale of an Englishman attempting to adapt to the Canadian frontier.
Having seen some or all of each nominated short here, I didn't understand "Dimanche" or "Stroll" all that well. "Wild Life" and "La Luna" were fine but neither bowled me over. I think "Morris" takes this, as it has the clearest story with the clearest conclusion. Frankly, I think this could have been stretched out into a feature-length animated movie.
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
"Pentecost" is about an altar boy who is trying to juggle his duties there versus his love for the Liverpool soccer team. "Raju" is a story of an Indian child who vanishes in his homeland, with his German parents trying to figure out where he could be and why he left. "The Shore" shows some Irish folks reuniting, yet a comedy of errors ensues amongst them. "Time Freak" is about a rather geeky inventor who successfully creates a time machine, but only keeps going back to the prior day since he keeps screwing things up during that day. "Tuba Atlantic" tells the tale of a dying man who tries to reach his brother across the ocean to forgive him for a years-old disagreement.
All of these looked very interesting in the segments I've seen from them, and "The Shore" and "Time Freak" specifically are pretty damn funny. Funny shorts have done well in this category lately, but I'm giving "Shore" the edge since it has the well-established Terry George behind it as director and writer.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees are "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2", "Hugo", "Real Steel", "Rise of the Planet of the Apes" and "Transformers: Dark of the Moon". Transformers movies keep getting nominated but never win anything, and I don't see that changing this year. I haven't seen "Apes" but I've heard nothing but raves about the visual effects since the damn thing came out last summer, whereas I've heard little to nothing about the visual effects of the rest of these. "Apes" wins.
BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Hollywood Copycat Edition)", "Hugo", "Moneyball", "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" and "War Horse". In my blog from yesterday talking about "War Horse", I said that one particular scene was the most thrilling I'd witnessed in a theater in a very long time. Part of the reason was the sound mixing, which was very impressive throughout the movie. I think "War Horse" wins here.
BEST SOUND EDITING
"Drive", "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Version 2.0)", "Hugo", "Transformers: Dark of the Moon" and "War Horse". You would think a film that wins one sound award would win them both, but that isn't always the case. I think it will be this year. "War Horse" gets another one.
BEST MAKEUP
"Albert Nobbs" has impressive gender-changing work on the faces of several characters. "The Iron Lady" has Meryl Streep looking remarkably like British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher throughout her life. However, the decade-long series of Harry Potter movies finally came to an end in 2011, and I think the Academy will want to somehow recognize that. Plus, I just think between the three nominated films, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" has the best overall makeup. Many characters, good and evil, dirty and bloody, injured and healed, young and aged. This seems like an easy pick, but we'll see.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Academy doesn't care, so why should we? It's bad enough there are only two nominated songs, neither of which is all that impressive to begin with, but they aren't even having the songs performed on the show. I can't believe the nominated songwriters are even going to show up on Sunday, but they are. Flip a coin. Song from "The Muppets", song from "Rio". In either case, the music industry is getting flipped off by the Academy.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"The Adventures of Tintin", "The Artist", "Hugo", "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" and "War Horse". The first and last titles are by John Williams, and I'm bored with John Williams and his overblown music. "The Artist" score is one of the critical parts of that film, because it's guiding you through the story itself. I don't see how it can't win here.
BEST FILM EDITING
"The Artist", "The Descendents", "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Redux)", "Hugo" and "Moneyball". Some clever trickery was employed by "The Artist" in filming, as the usual 24-frames-per-second speed was cut down to 22 to give the film a slightly-faster movement like the old silent films used to. Add in the occasional intertitles at just the right moment, and you have a beautifully-edited work. "The Artist" wins.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Bullhead" [from Belgium] is about a cattle farmer coerced into making a deal with a shady beef trader, and that leads to a very bad chain of events. "Footnote" [from Israel] tells of a father and son, who are both professors, trying to balance their fragile relationship. "In Darkness" [from Poland] tells of a man's attempt to rescue Jewish refugees in a Nazi-occupied town. "Monsieur Lazhar" [from Canada] is about an Algerian man who is hired to replace a female elementary school teacher who committed suicide. "A Separation" [from Iran] is a story of a married couple heading towards divorce but disagreeing about their child's custody. The husband's Alzheimers-stricken father further complicates matters, not to mention a murder investigation against the husband as well.
"A Separation" should win this. It's won many awards already, and I'll tell you why: The film is freaking excellent. Seriously. The story is great, the performances are great, the staging is great. Everything is great. This is one of the best films I saw all year. And it wins here.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Hell and Back Again" follows soldiers being sent to Afghanistan and their eventual return home. "If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" is a case where the title totally explains the film. "Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" is the third in a series, following three young boys arrested and jailed for murder, but new evidence may prove them innocent. "Pina" is a tribute to the late choreographer Pina Bausch and mixes breathtaking dance routines (in 3-D, no less) with many personal recollections of Pina by her peers. "Undefeated" follows a football team looking to turn things around for their coach.
Unlike last year where I was able to see several of the nominees, this year I'm flying almost blind, having only seen clips from each. I think that the dance sequences of "Pina" will give this the edge, despite the fact that numerous critics didn't really consider this much of a documentary, but more of a showcase.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" follows 85-year-old Mr. Armstrong, a civil rights leader of that era now witnessing the first African-American President take office. "God is the Bigger Elvis" is about Dolores Hart, a former actress (and active member of the AMPAS) who left Hollywood in 1963 to become a Benedictine nun, which she remains to this day. "Incident in New Baghdad" tells the tale of a soldier recounting firsthand an accidental American attack of journalists during the Iraq War. "Saving Face" is about Pakistani women trying to get their lives back in order after having been attacked with acid by their husbands, a crime that apparently happens regularly in that country. "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" tells of Japanese towns after the devastating earthquake and tsunami, rebuilding around the cherry blossoms that still survived the disaster. This sounds like the winner to me.
BEST ART/SET DIRECTION
"The Artist", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2", "Hugo", "Midnight in Paris" and "War Horse". With 11 nominations for "Hugo", you would think it has to win somewhere. No other film, to me, comes close to it for art and set direction. This seems to be the slam dunk.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Anonymous", "The Artist", "Hugo", "Jane Eyre" and "W.E.". If I may boast, I'm not sure I've gotten this category wrong in over a decade. Most years, royalty and/or classic/epic literature are winners here. Last year was none of those, but I still picked right. So yeah, I'm tooting my horn a bit. "Anonymous" is about Shakespeare and that era, so it has a shot. "W.E." is WWII England royals, so it should have a shot in theory, but that movie has not been well-received and part of the reason is some say it's actually too much about the Royal Bling. I'm going with "Jane Eyre". I'll call it "Downton Abbey" influence on the voters.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Artist", "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Part Deux)", "Hugo", "The Tree of Life" and "War Horse". Janusz Kaminski + Steven Spielberg = *DING!*. "War Horse" gets a third Oscar.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
2011 was a terrible year for animated movies. Too much 3-D hoopla given to too many mediocre films. The Golden Globe for this went to "The Adventures of Tintin", a film that seriously underperformed at the box office and got middle-of-the-road reviews from most. That film didn't even get an Oscar nomination. The Academy really did do their homework for this category, and I applaud that. We have two films nominated here that even I had never heard of before the nominations came out, both of them foreign animated films.
"A Cat in Paris" is a mystery that pretty much takes place in alleys and rooftops. "Chico & Rita" tells of a couple united by music and passion. The others you're likely familiar with: "Kung Fu Panda 2", "Puss in Boots" and "Rango". I don't think there's any doubt that "Rango" will win this, and while I do want to see it, I'm certainly not chomping at the bit to do so. That's pretty much the story of animated films circa 2011.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
We have Kenneth Branagh ("My Week With Marilyn"), Jonah Hill ("Moneyball"), Nick Nolte ("Warrior") and Max von Sydow ("Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"). Wait, that's only four. Oh, you're right. You see, the one acting category that seems to be a bet-the-house easy call is this one. Christopher Plummer has won EVERYTHING thus far for his role in "Beginners", a film that actually bored me, but whatever. This 82-year-old Award Train is not stopping until after he takes the Oscar stage on Sunday.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Now, just like Plummer, Octavia Spencer has been winning EVERYTHING thus far for her role in "The Help", many times up against her co-star Jessica Chastain (who also is nominated here). There's just one problem. Actually, two. First off, this is the category that in history provides the most shocking upsets. It's happened on several occasions. Secondly, there has been so much going on in the media about Melissa McCarthy winning here for her bawdy performance in "Bridesmaids" that it's really starting to make me wonder. On top of that, I can't completely shake Berenice Bejo ("The Artist") out of my subconscious here either. Janet McTeer, some would argue, actually was a more convincing man in "Albert Nobbs" than her costar Glenn Close was, so there's that going for her. I think Jessica is the only one I can't even fathom potentially winning this, and it's not to say she wasn't very good, because she was. But all these other factors just outweigh her performance and chances right now. And despite all that paranoia I just spit out, I'm still picking Spencer here.
BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist", Alexander Payne for "The Descendents", Martin Scorsese for "Hugo", Woody Allen for "Midnight in Paris" and Terrence Malick for "The Tree of Life". Martin won the Globe, which was a bit of an upset. Woody will win for his screenplay, so that takes him out here in my view. Terrence, no comment. Actually, yes, comment. Your film was a pretentious pile of shit. Alexander is going to win this award...eventually, but not this time. Michel Hazanavicius takes the prize on Sunday.
BEST ACTRESS
The tightest race of the year. Five nominees, and any one of four could win this and not shock me. The odd woman out is Rooney Mara, nominated for playing Noomi Rapace playing Lisbeth Salander in "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (il impostore)". I hated that she even got this nomination, but apparently she's coming across as rather arrogant in the press lately so that will surely kill her chances of winning here even further, which suits me fine. So let's move on. We've got Glenn Close ("Albert Nobbs"), who has her sixth career nomination and probably her best shot at winning for the first time. We've got Viola Davis ("The Help"), who delivers solidly in her first lead acting role. We've got Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady"), who's won a few awards lately for this such as the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. We've got Michelle Williams ("My Week With Marilyn"), who also won a Golden Globe. These are all viable and legitimate contenders here. The Oscar season began with heavy buzz for Davis to ultimately win the Oscar. Despite the momentum Streep has gained in recent weeks, I think the end result will ultimately deliver what was prophesied. I'm going with Davis.
BEST ACTOR
Demian Bichir ("A Better Life") got the most out-of-nowhere nomination of this year, and Gary Oldman ("Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy") finally got his first nomination, period. Both should be very proud of this, and I'm sure they are, but this is as far as it goes this year, I'm afraid. I think Brad Pitt gave the best performance of his career in "Moneyball". I want to give him an award myself. However, there are two men who have been trading off just about every award thus far, and that's George Clooney ("The Descendents") and Jean Dujardin ("The Artist"), and one of them is going to win the Oscar. Clooney won the Critics Choice award and had been getting many of the accolades. Then the Globes happened, and Dujardin won that one. Since then, he's sprinted towards the finish line strongly, winning several other honors. I have a feeling he's going to stretch the neck just long enough to cross first. Actually, first he has to get his neck off of Clooney's shoulder...
The two have actually gotten to know each other very closely in the last few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see a collaboration down the line. In any event, come Oscar night, I think Jean Dujardin wins.
So that leaves the Big One.
BEST PICTURE
We have nine films nominated. Over the last couple of weeks, I've given a synopsis on each of them with some comments. Now it's time to actually pick a winner. I'm going to do so the way the Oscar voters actually do, and rank them. If I was a member of the Academy, my ballot would read as follows:
#9 The Tree of Life
#8 Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
#7 Hugo
#6 War Horse
#5 Midnight in Paris
#4 The Help
#3 The Descendents
#2 Moneyball
#1 The Artist
"The Artist" was my favorite film of the year and it would get my vote. However, last year my favorite film was "True Grit". That didn't necessarily mean I was going to pick it to win Best Picture.
Ohhhhhhhhhhh, the suspense! Could I be pulling a switcheroo surprisey here?
Well...sorry, no, I'm not. I'm picking "The Artist".
A silent movie in 2011. Black-and-white, of course. Story told through music and the actual pictures and movements you're watching on the big screen. How in the hell can this win in this day and age?
Simple. It told the best story. It had a great ensemble. It was risky, something very against-the-grain. This is a movie everyone can see. I don't even remember offhand the last time a Best Picture wasn't rated R. This is PG-13, and I can't even freaking figure THAT one out, because there's NOTHING in this film that I can think of to warrant a rating beyond PG. The feeling of sitting in the theater and watching this as I did, listening to the music, reading the intertitles...it really felt like a time warp. That was a wonderful feeling. There's just nothing here giving me a single doubt that this should, and will, win. Thus far, "The Artist" has indeed taken most of the top prizes, but the Oscars can sometimes be a harsh mistress. With the probable exception of "Titanic", each and every year, the only thing that's certain on the night of the Academy Awards, is that nothing's for certain.
I hope you'll all join the festivities at home, or at an Oscar party, or wherever, and check out the Academy Awards this Sunday night. Let's all go to the movies.
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