And as you can see, everyone has been eagerly awaiting this blog...
Those who know me well enough already know (and perhaps roll their eyes as a result) that I am a huge and major and hopeless geek when it comes to movies, and especially when it comes to the Oscars. However, this is a year that has me doubly excited because I've seen most of these films this time well in advance, and as luck would have it, just about all of them are anywhere from "good" to "really good" and beyond. The last time I felt that every one of the Best Picture nominees were films I'd watch again a second time was in 1994, when all five of the nominated Best Picture movies wowed me. (For the record, that was "Forrest Gump" [a film that to me hasn't really held up over time in comparison to others on this list], "Pulp Fiction" [the film that probably should have won], "Quiz Show" [a film that just bowls me over me every time I see it], "The Shawshank Redemption" [considered, albeit a few years after it should have happened, one of the best films of all time by many] and "Four Weddings and a Funeral" [the weak link of the five but still great].) Here, the list of 2010 nominees consists of ten films. I've seen eight of them, and I liked every damn one of them. The two I haven't seen I do want to, and will, before the Oscars take place in two weeks, but I don't think not seeing them will change any of my predictions at this point. I've worked very diligently and taken a lot into consideration this year with the nominations and who I think will win, more so than I think I ever have. Frankly, I'm as excited as I've ever been for the telecast this year, even with a few categories seemingly sewn up. Yet I can't shake the feeling that we're in for a surprise or two this go-round.
So without further adieu, nor with any pointless montages or gawdy song-and-dance numbers, let's get into the heart of the matter.
We'll start as we always do on these blogs with the categories that are almost along the lines of rock-paper-scissors. However, with five nominees in each category, and with a nod to Jim Parsons and "The Big Bang Theory", let's say these categories are along the lines of rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock. Since they're probably not known to most very well or at all, I'll be giving a brief synopsis on each. I doubt I'd need to do much of that for the movies in the later categories.
* Best Animated Short Film
We have "Day & Night", Pixar's annual short that gets added to their big theater release each year. There's "The Gruffalo", based on a popular children's book and aired on the BBC network last year, and later ABC Family this past December. "Let's Pollute", a very funny six-minute satire executed in the style of those old filmstrips we used to have to watch in grade school, complete with horrible caricatures of people who are always smiling no matter what's going on around them. "The Lost Thing", based on an Australian children's book and brought to animated life by the author. Finally, "Madagascar, A Journey Diary", which is pretty self-explanatory. There's no real plot, we just follow along into different parts of the country and culture as if going through a scrapbook. Of these five, I've only seen the fifth nominee in full. I've seen anywhere from 30 seconds to several minutes of the others, and to me "The Gruffalo" just tells the most coherent story for both children and adults, plus it's gotten lots of popular feedback from its airings in the US and UK. Therefore, I'm checking off the box for scissors. Erm...I mean, "The Gruffalo".
* Best Live-Action Short Film
First is "The Confession", the story of a boy who has nothing to confess upon his forthcoming first visit with the priest, so he decides to commit a prank with a friend that ultimately turns tragic. Next is "The Crush", about a boy who has a crush on his teacher and winds up challenging her boyfriend to a dual to the death. "God of Love" is about a darts champion who mysteriously receives a box of love-potion-tipped darts just as he is trying to decide how to win over his desired lady. "Na Wewe", a Belgian short set in the midst of a Burundi Civil War. Finally, there's "Wish 143" that tells the story of a dying boy who gets offered a wish to be granted from a charity foundation, but his choice winds up being a bit of a tough one to pull off. In this case, I've seen none of them in full, only segments, so I can't give anything more than a "best guess" here, and I'm going with "The Confession". For a short, it's actually a bit long (about a half-hour) and frankly, the production values look like this is a full-fledged motion picture. The child actors have a great presence as well in the two scenes I have seen up to this point. If my first two picks are correct, that also gives the UK a 2-0 lead over the field.
* Best Documentary Short
"Killing in the Name" follows a Muslim man who on his wedding day saw 27 members of he and his bride's families killed by a suicide bomber, and is now confronting terrorism within his country and his religion. "Poster Girl" follows a former high-school cheerleader who wound up going into the armed forces as a machine-gunner, now having returned home to fight unexpected battles as a result. "Strangers No More" tells the story of a school in Tel Aviv where children from all over the world and from many different cultures come together. "Sun Come Up" follows refugees looking for new homes away from their war-torn areas of Papua New Guinea. "The Warriors of Qiugang" follows a village populace in central China battling a chemical company polluting their air and water and very own overall health. I'm happy to say that I've gotten much more appreciative of documentaries as I've gotten older. That may mean I've just gotten older and I'm more of a boring slob, but whatever. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to see any of these beyond a short clip, so I'm throwing another dart and going with "Killing in the Name". The story told there grabs my interest more than the others.
* Best Documentary Feature
Now THESE I'm more familiar with. I've actually seen two of them and a third that I expected to be on this list but ultimately wasn't, "Waiting For Superman". Apparently that film wound up having a little too much "staged" stuff going on and over time more and more people in the industry found out about that, so the Academy looked elsewhere. Still, there are some good ones here. "Exit Through the Gift Shop" is billed as the world's first street art disaster movie. A young Frenchman seeks out a known street artist named Banksy but winds up having Banksy shoot as much footage of him as he does of Banksy. Other street artists also get roped into being allowed to be filmed. "GasLand" is a stunning documentary showing Halliburton leasing properties from owners to drill for natural gas, but in reality this drilling is causing results such as the tap water in the kitchen being highly flammable. There are lots of angry Halliburton executives seen on this one. At least when they're not asking for the cameras to be turned off and/or leaving the room in the middle of filming. "Inside Job" basically tells us in explicit detail exactly how and why the financial crash of a few years ago happened. "Restrepo" spends a year in a deadly area of Afghanistan with a platoon who named their stronghold after a fallen comrade. "Waste Land" takes place in one of the largest "cities of trash" known to mankind, but sees transformations of this trash into art and beauty.
* Best Visual Effects
This is a category that normally only sees three nominations, but interestingly this year there are five. "Alice in Wonderland", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1", "Hereafter", "Inception" and "Iron Man 2". To me, everything I've seen from "Inception" is like "The Matrix" on steroids, so that's my clear pick.
* Best Sound Mixing
"Inception", "The King's Speech", "Salt", "The Social Network" and "True Grit". Throw the "Salt" over your shoulder because that has zero chance with no other nominations. I don't think "Social" is at all about the sound. Outside of a few instances with gunfire and whatnot, I don't think "True Grit" has this one either. "Inception", tied in with the visual effects, has lots of wild sound effects, but that's a different category. For this one, I'm picking "The King's Speech". A lot of scenes with no music and nothing but dialogue echoed in a cavernous room or over loudspeakers. The sound is what makes those moments memorable. "King" reigns.
* Best Sound Editing
As hinted in the previous paragraph, "Inception" should have this one clear over "Toy Story 3", "Tron: Legacy", "True Grit" and "Unstoppable".
* Best Makeup
"Barney's Version" ages some characters, "The Way Back" has a lot of dirty characters and "The Wolfman" is going to give Rick Baker his seventh Academy Award.
* Best Costume Design
This is a category that normally goes to a movie that is about royalty, or is an epic, or both. Every year I say to go with the film that fits that criteria, and every year it turns out to be exactly what happens. However, this year we're going against the grain. "I Am Love" has a lot of fashionable modern costumes, but those are rarely rewarded with Oscar gold. "The Tempest" barely made a box-office ripple. "True Grit" has costumes that are probably a little "too grit". So why would I not pick "The King's Speech"? For the oddest of reasons, but I believe in this enough to go with it. The men are generally quite regaled in their costumes, from King Colin Firth on down. However, Helena Bonham Carter never has a grand and glorious royal outfit on for the entire picture, and I think that's going to make the Academy only feel like "King" reached the halfway marker as far as succeeding for this prize. I'm picking "Alice in Wonderland". By miles and miles, the costumes in this picture far surpass those in the others.
I have to take "Inception" and "True Grit" out for this one in comparison to the other nominees. "The King's Speech" has royal halls and spacious offices. "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1" has massive landscapes in a wizard's world gone apocalyptic. However, "Alice in Wonderland" has Tim Burton's usual crew at their most imaginative and colossal, which is why "Alice" gets my pick here as well.
* Best Editing
This one took me a little while to settle on a pick. "127 Hours", "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "The King's Speech" and "The Social Network". To be honest, none of these jumped out at me as a clear winner for quite awhile until I relived scenes from each film in my head (having seen all five films). There are a lot of long dialogue-driven scenes in those last two nominees, so I crossed them off. "127 Hours" employs a lot of editing for dramatic effect, especially in relation to "that scene". (More on that later.) "Black Swan", another film with another "that scene" (more on THAT later) and "The Fighter" were the two I went back and forth on for this award, and ultimately I'm giving it to "Black Swan" for the frequent occurrences of Natalie Portman's character losing track of what is happening in reality and what is happening as a result of her descent into madness.
* Best Cinematography
Cinematography is often hard to define without turning it into a paragraph-long definition. It is basically the lighting and the camerawork and the overall "look" of a film. Of course, "look" can be defined a number of ways, so that's where it can get complicated, but to me it's just easy to define it as "the film that LOOKS the best." We've got a few good possible winners here as well. I can eliminate "The Social Network" though. "Inception" is heavy on CGI but as we saw with last year's win here by "Avatar", CGI doesn't necessarily deter the voters in categories such as this as it once may have. Notwithstanding, I'm crossing that off. That leaves "Black Swan", "The King's Speech" and "True Grit". I've got good reasons to pick any of these, but I settled on "The King's Speech" for those earlier-mentioned royal halls and spacious offices. The sight of Colin Firth as a Royal sitting on a couch against the wall of a dimly-lit and otherwise nearly-devoid-of-furniture cavernous room trying to admit to his speech impediment is the selling point for me here.
* Best Original Song
Meh. If you've read any of my earlier blogs you know how I feel about what this category has turned into. Songs no one's ever heard, plus at least one from Randy Newman. Going with "Coming Home" from the film "Country Strong". Gwyneth Paltrow will be performing this live at the ceremony, which is about the only interesting thing I can say about this category.
"127 Hours", "How to Train Your Dragon", "Inception", "The King's Speech" and "The Social Network". Strangely, the lack of music in many pivotal scenes of "The King's Speech" doesn't seem to be hurting it as it's won several score awards already for Alexandre Desplat, most recently the BAFTA. However, the Golden Globe went to Trent Reznor (yes, he of Nine Inch Nails) and Atticus Ross for "The Social Network". Flip a coin on this one, but I'm going with "The Social Network" simply because I feel the film delivers more of a score.
After coming through properly last year, the Academy shunned the animation industry once again by only choosing to nominate 3 films this year. Granted, in this year of 3-D glut there were a lot of only-average films, but it sure didn't stop them from nominating "Treasure Planet" and "Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron" in 2002. *sigh* Well, at least they nominated 3 quality films here instead of 2 quality films and just another one that made a lot of money. "How to Train Your Dragon" was very loved by audiences and critics, as apparently a film was turned out that was much better than many thought it would be. "The Illusionist" (seen above) is a cute and quirky French animated film from the director of the 2003 Oscar-nominated "The Triplets of Belleville" and is a pleasant surprise here as a nomination. It has no chance of winning though. And despite the Annie Awards love that "Dragon" got recently, it has no chance either. "Toy Story 3". Pixar. Best Picture nomination. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Win.
Without question, I'm less prepared in this category than I have been for at least a decade. I didn't see any in the last year that got a lot of buzz. Julia Roberts fixed that, campaigning HEAVILY for a film from Mexico called "Biutiful". It worked, because the film is nominated here, not to mention its star Javier Bardem nominated for Best Actor. With the rest of the films being virtually unknown here in the States to moviegoers and likely even to some voters ("Dogtooth" from Greece, Golden Globe winner "In a Better World" from Denmark, "Incendies" from Canada and "Outside the Law" from Algeria), I'm guessing that Julia just gave director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu an Academy Award.
So are you still with me? Good. Eight left, and these are the big ones. For the record, right now within my picks, nothing has more than 2 wins, and one of them is fucking "Alice in Wonderland".
"Another Year" by Mike Leigh, who makes his triumphant return to the Academy Awards here with a film that I couldn't tell you anything about if you put a gun to my nuts. "The Fighter", "Inception", "The Kids Are All Right" and "The King's Speech". A few people wondered how that last one got nominated here, but in actuality the book that has been popular recently was written as a companion piece for the film, it was not the source for the film and its screenplay. I had a tough time on this one, because even though I'm picking "The King's Speech" to win this award, I really wanted to and still want to vote for "The Kids Are All Right", because I just thought the story there was fantastic. I think I just have some worries that the Academy as a whole isn't quite ready to fully embrace same-sex love stories as much as the rest of us are. They've gotten a lot closer in recent years but I don't think they're there yet.
"127 Hours", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "True Grit" and "Winter's Bone". Another clarification is needed for this award as well, as "Toy Story 3" falls into the Adapted category because it's based on the characters and stories from the previous "TS" films, hence it fits the definition of "based on material previously produced or published." This is a hell of a list of nominees but I think it comes down to "Social" and "Grit". The Coen's "True Grit" is more loyal to the original book than the 1969 John Wayne film was, plus it's sprinkled with classic Coen Brothers wit. Of course, I don't need to go on about Aaron Sorkin's ability when it comes to wit either, as is evidenced by the whip-crackingly smart dialogue all over "The Social Network". Tough call and I'm even wondering as I type this right now whether or not I should flip my choice, but I won't. "Network" wins here.
A month ago I pretty much was set on who I thought would win, and her winning of the Golden Globes only seemed to cement that thought. I speak of Melissa Leo for her role in "The Fighter". She was the standout female in a large group of great females in this film, including her fellow nominee in this category Amy Adams, who we finally got to see shed her sunshine-lollipops-and-rainbows roles and deliver a doozy from the other side of the spectrum. We've also got Helena Bonham Carter for "The King's Speech", but as a whole I don't see what about that performance truly screams "WOW!" It's good, but just good, that's all. Jacki Weaver is nominated for her role in an Aussie film called "Animal Kingdom" (seen above) that I actually saw last August and forgot all about. The film is decent with Weaver the matriarch of a family of criminals, and she comes through in this film without question.
But then I saw "True Grit".
First off, she's not even a SUPPORTING actress, she's in the whole damn movie. However, politics do come into play sometimes and they did here, and it was believed that if Hailee was to be nominated as a LEAD actress, she would have a lesser chance of winning against Natalie Portman. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but I certainly don't necessarily agree with it either. She does indeed have a better chance in this category. But since she IS now in this category, she better fucking win the thing, because she SHOULD. She was the heart and soul of this movie, delivering probably the best performance by a 13-year-old I've ever seen in any film, ever.
Secondly, the Golden Globes completely ignored this film. It got not a single nomination for anything, least of all for Hailee. Then the Oscar nominations come out and WHAM! Ten nominations for "True Grit". That means something.
* Best Supporting Actor
With all due respect for John Hawkes for "Winter's Bone", Jeremy Renner for "The Town" (that film's only nomination), Mark Ruffalo for "The Kids Are All Right" and Geoffrey Rush for "The King's Speech", this award is going to Christian Bale for "The Fighter". His horse is already 75% around the track and the others haven't even left the gate.
* Best Actress in a Leading Role
Natalie Portman ("Black Swan") can not only thank the AMPAS for not nominating Noomi Rapace for her role in "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", but she can thank everyone who campaigned for Hailee Steinfeld to go into the Supporting Actress category, because that eliminated her only competition. Annette Bening ("The Kids Are All Right") delivered a great performance that did win a Golden Globe, but for once she's getting beaten by someone not named Hilary Swank. Nicole Kidman for her role in the depressing-as-fuck "Rabbit Hole"? Not happening. Jennifer Lawrence for "Winter's Bone"? A nice nomination for sure but too unknown, both her and the film, despite mega mondo great reviews for both. Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine"? No other nominations for the film dooms her chances against the Black Swan herself. This is Natalie's baby. Or I should say, her first baby. Her second one is due in a few months.
* Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem for "Biutiful". Julia Roberts worked some magic with her campaign, but the magic ends here. Jeff Bridges for "True Grit"? Best chance for an upset, but I think the win last year will be sufficient in the eyes of the voters. Jesse Eisenberg for "The Social Network"? The lack of any other acting nominees from this film in any category may have wound up completely killing his chances here. James Franco for "127 Hours"? Intense and tremendous, but perhaps being the co-host of the ceremony will make for a nice consolation prize. No way, no how, does Colin Firth not win this for "The King's Speech".
*Best Director
The anomaly continues where we have 10 films nominated for Best Picture yet only 5 directors nominated for Best Director. You can't generally have one without the other, so with the directors of 5 of those Best Picture nominees not named here, it virtually cuts the list for Big One in half. Be that as it may, let's look at our choices here. Darren Aranofsky for "Black Swan", Ethan and Joel Coen for "True Grit", David Fincher for "The Social Network", Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech" and David O. Russell for "The Fighter". No Christopher Nolan yet again is a travesty, but que sera. This is a reallllllllly tough pick, and I had more trouble with this one than in any other category this year. The only one I think is a sure pick NOT to win is Russell. Sorry, David O. The other films all have difficult scenes, complex dialogue and interactions by the characters throughout the movies, a dash of humor thrown in when you least expect it...this may be the first time (and it will probably be the last time) that I say Best Director is a four-horse race. After much deliberating and more than a few bottles of Twisted Tea, I eliminted Darren. Then I eliminated the Coens. And then I eliminated Tom Hooper. I'm going with David Fincher for "The Social Network". I just feel that his film and his direction more than any of the other choices delivered more from his characters as a whole. And I absolutely do not want to see his name on this list next year for the completely-unnecessary Hollywood adaptation of "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo" because that film has no business even being made when it was already made perfectly in Sweden a couple of years ago. (Rant over.)
And so it comes down to this. Hopefully they won't rush to announce the winner this year like they did last year either.
"127 Hours". I've seen the film. It's a good film. But it's all about "that scene". James Franco's character is in the mountains and he winds up ultimately stuck, and he is not going to survive if he doesn't free his trapped arm. So he cuts it off. This is based on a true story and the film depicts it very explicitly in what is an impressive display of music, performance, emotion and effects. The problem is, most people who've seen the film never saw this impressive display because the scene is so frigging graphic that people have been legitimately puking at the sight of it. Fortunately, that did not happen to me, but even my strong stomach felt a pang or two. Beyond this scene, it's a story of triumph and sheer will, but as a whole, I left the theater just feeling this film was a one-trick pony. Or a one-armed pony, I guess.
"Black Swan". This was the film I was anticipating more than any other last year, and it did not disappoint. It was gripping and intense, and it was a film that will without question turn off a lot of Oscar voters with its graphic nature, most notably "that scene". (If the Oscar producers are smart, they'll have a montage this year with all of the "that scenes" from over the years.) Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis engage in about 60 seconds of the most intense lesbianism I've ever seen in anything that didn't involve the word "porn". It turns out it may have just been a hallucination, but ultimately it's for the viewer to decide. Nonetheless, while I loved the film, I don't see it winning the Big One.
"The Fighter". Seen it, enjoyed it, but this film to me is more about the individual performances, all of which are excellent, than it is about the story itself.
"Inception". Christopher Nolan does get a nod here, but with no directing nod to go with it, you can forget all about a "redemption win" given for this film in lieu of 2008's "The Dark Knight" not being nominated for Best Picture as it should have. This is one of the two nominees for Best Picture I have not yet seen, but I feel safe with my prediction at this point.
"The Kids Are All Right". A film from last summer that got great reviews and did well in mostly limited release. A nicely-told story, generally a comedy, and with great performances from Annette Bening and Julianne Moore. This film won the Golden Globes for Best Picture - Musical/Comedy, and it should have.
"The King's Speech". This was the presumed Oscar frontrunner prior to the Golden Globes. However, the film only won Globe (Colin as Best Actor) and it looked like momentum had shifted to "The Social Network". One dozen Oscar nominations later, the "King" may have reclaimed his throne. An excellent film from top to bottom.
"The Social Network". This film has won just about every major Best Picture-esque prize to this point, including the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Drama. So why is it not the favorite here? To be honest, I don't even have a hypothesis. It not only didn't get the most Oscar nominations, it didn't even get the SECOND-most. It is, at best, the second-favorite to win here as well. The film was a tremendous critical and commercial success, the story is great, the performances are stellar and the dialogue ranks right up there with films like "All About Eve" on the Bullet-Ricochet scale. Don't count it out here.
"Toy Story 3". I was a little "pfeh" about this nomination. Does the Academy feel they have to nominate an animated film now each year since they're nominating 10, and 2008's "Wall-E" was shunned when it really should have been nominated in that final year when they only nominated five films? I've seen the film and it's excellent, so in fairness, I can't say that it flat-out shouldn't be on this list. The final 20 or so minutes of the film are unfuckingbelievable on an emotional level. My only remaining criticism is that with this film here, you may as well not even bother televising the award for Best Animated Feature because you've already TOLD US what the best animated feature is because it's on this list and the other two aren't.
"True Grit". This movie just hit me like a sack of bricks, and I mean that in a good way. This was my favorite film of 2010. I loved it. After the Coens' "No Country For Old Men", which I hated like Charlie Sheen hates celibacy, I was a bit worried about seeing this even though the trailer for it really piqued my interest. I came out of the theater not able to shut up about this film. The Academy apparently felt something too because it scored 10 nominations, second only to "King's" 12, despite not getting ANY nominations for the Globes.
"Winter's Bone". This year's indie film that could, the gritty tale of a girl searching for her alcoholic father in order to save their family home resonated with critics, and word-of-mouth from moviegoers made it a rather successful film despite never going into wide release. This is the other nominee I haven't yet seen, and I really do want to, but I think it's just a bit too unknown to triumph here.
Easily the best crop of nominees in a very long time. "The Social Network" has been the frontrunner as far as winning prizes so far. "The King's Speech" has been the 'Oscar favorite' despite the Globes stumble. "True Grit" comes out of nowhere and cops ten nominations, which makes me wonder if they know something the rest of those awards-givers don't.
So which comes out on top?
The answer to that I could define, but it was better defined by actor/producer Mark Redfield. Ironically, it was on Facebook that we had a brief back-and-forth about "King" versus "Social". Mark said that he would vote for "King" because it tells the story of a great social and interpersonal friendship versus a great antisocial and non-interpersonal non-friendship. I'm probably not even doing his definition justice there, but when he said it, it really made me think about both films, and his definition just sounded to me like what the Academy generally goes for.
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So there you have it. I hope you'll tune in and watch the show in two weeks. You know I will, and I'll do my best to "live-blog" on Facebook as it happens. Thankx for reading. Please feel free to comment away and recommend this blog to anyone and everyone you can, especially if they're even half the movie geek that I am!
Great votes for sure baby! I'm with you for most of them. And, for an "Alice" hater, I'm glad to see you picked it twice, so did I! My only real departure from you is in cinematography. You know I LOVE The King's Speech, but I've just gotta go with True Grit on this one. Otherwise, the only thing we need now is someone LIVE BLOGGING the event. Hmmmm, wonder who might wanna do THAT?!
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